Super eruption
in North America - the United States a threat or disaster terrestrial
scale, promising evil throughout the northern hemisphere? Is Russia ready for him?
Viral
News that "we are all about to die" from the eruption of the
Yellowstone supervolcano, shaken by the World Wide Web once every few
years. However, as a more balanced analysis of the scientists, geologists, in reality it is almost always a false alarm. Confidently say that a supervolcano can erupt at any particular time, it is impossible today. Only recently, geologists discovered "heavy breathing" -lёgkoe fluctuation level Yellowstone caldera (volcanic basin). Until
now, there are disputes about the significance of this phenomenon:
whether it can be used to predict the activity of the volcano? Modern methods of monitoring is even taking the first steps in the field of conventional earthquake predictions.Super eruption Yellowstone type - fundamentally stronger and less. Therefore, the experience of observing live for humanity just yet. The first people who have experienced many such eruptions were illiterate and did not leave any seismological observations. So the correct answer to the question "When Yellowstone explode?" It is not "tomorrow or in a year," and "We do not know" and "at any time".
Catastrophe.
What could be the consequences of the awakening Yellowstone supervolcano? To better understand the scale of this event is to look at the last super eruption in the region. It is known as "Lava Creek" happened 630,000 years ago. According to current data, while emissions have reached at least 1,000
cubic kilometers (billions of tons), and the ashes of an unknown amount
of sulfur dioxide.
Particulate emissions have covered the area from the Gulf of Mexico in the east to the Pacific Ocean to the west. And the ashes lay on the south of modern Canada and Mexico to the north. It
is easy to notice that this is the main part of the territory of
today's United States, which in the future will automatically eruption
of the first and hardest hit. ash emissions can be very dangerous - its thickness after the "Lava Creek" on the surface of the earth reaches 180-200 meters. Although
it was not everywhere, nevertheless the layer was thick enough to
destroy all life on the territory of at least hundreds of thousands of
square kilometers. This ash is not fell like lightning: modern views, "black snow" after super eruption can go a whole day. However, any living being must sometimes stop to sleep. Often such stop in the constantly falling on top of the ash may be the last for him .
Last danger? Not yet: next to the Yellowstone caldera all the above problems will not disturb anyone. The US Geological Survey says, the eruption of this kind will be accompanied by large-scale emission of lava. The only question is, will spread lava for 10 or 30 kilometers per side of the caldera. Some spills last hundred thousand years covered 340 square kilometers at a time (the Moscow area - more than 2500). In
the area of the lava fields of anything and everything just burned,
so the ashes and so there will be absolutely no actual threat.
US
researchers console: the ash is likely to affect the weak California
and Florida, and thus spare the two important centers of agricultural
States. One
problem - when the bulk of the country's territory is covered with ash
deposits multimeter, feed them due to a pair of barn-states will be very
difficult. And even if there is something to grow, it is likely that food is nowhere not reach. Ashes blocking railways and roads, and air transport for a long time
at all will not be able to fly in indicated in the above region.
Judging
by the experience incomparably smaller Eyjafjallajökull volcano, the
ash are easily damaged aircraft turbines, and all the air routes near
the active volcano they will be permanently closed. This alone creates an unthinkable for the modern world traffic jams. Today,
in the event of disasters such as New Orleans (hurricane "Katrina") can
be sent to the army and the National Guard under the military transport
- but in the case of the effects of the Yellowstone just such an
opportunity is not available. No evacuate or to deliver food and water to the site of a disaster, as a rule, simply will not work.
To understand the scale of the disaster is easily one comparison. Calculations
show that during a nuclear war in one ton of TNT equivalent in the
atmosphere will get up to 5 tons of dust and soot. This
means that even in the complete disposal of all nuclear weapons in the
air will rise less than lifted Yellowstone 630,000 years ago.
"What we are Poles?"
Of
course, we can console ourselves with the fact that the lava (probably)
and ash (with some probability) did not reach the territory of Russia. Although
ash supervolcano Toba (Indonesia) at the time, even flew to the lakes
of East Africa, where it traces not so long ago it was discovered by
geologists. So that echo from the American ashes may well reach Russia. However, it is unlikely to bother some of its inhabitants. After all, they will have more pressing reason to think.Geophysicist
Victor Bokov from the Russian State Hydrometeorological University in
comments Life noted that after such an event is raised billions of tons
of ash will inevitably rise to the stratosphere. There, as the scientist blowing jet streams at speeds up to 200 kilometers per hour. The atmosphere over the northern hemisphere is dominated by western
transfer, so part of Yellowstone emissions is fully capable to reach a
number of regions of our country.More
importantly, aerosols formed by ash (as well as sulfur dioxide), will
reflect a significant percentage of solar radiation, causing global
cooling. Without knowing the force of the future super eruption to predict the scale of the volcanic winter can not exactly. For Russia, we will focus on reducing the average temperature a few degrees. On the face of it a bit. However, on closer examination it becomes clear that a possible disaster will have a colossal scale for us.
In Moscow (now the average is 4.1 degrees Celsius) or Penza climate in years will be the same as in Murmansk (+0.2). Not
only mean streak, but the bulk of Chernozem region on the temperature
becomes similar to the forest tundra of the Kola Peninsula. Of course, agriculture in the usual sense of the word is simply stop - potatoes and wheat does not grow in the tundra. The plants will not have enough heat to grow.According
to Victor Bokova, the ancient chronicles have recorded similar
individual climate problems in the past of our country - up to the XII
century. Then they were accompanied by a catastrophic famine. However,
the severity of the particular scenario Yellowstone adds that volcanic
aerosols do not leave the atmosphere in a year or two. Depending on the strength of Yellowstone super eruption they will hold there for a few years or even a decade. The drop in temperature on Earth will lead to a significant reduction in volatility - and rain. Even where there will be a little warmer than it is now in Murmansk, there may come a prolonged drought.All this means that crop failures are not just totally, but also long-term. Something can grow only in regions such as Crimea and Kuban (unless, of course, there will not disappear rainfall). But
this will not be the usual for these places food crops and those that
usually grow to hundreds or thousands of kilometers to the north. And to feed the entire country with the Kuban Piglet will not be so easy. Due
to the global nature of the disaster and do not look for international
assistance - the whole world will be faced with the prospect of
starvation. The planet is not just countries with food reserves equal to 5-10 years in their own consumption. Not the fact that many people will avoid depopulation as a result of starvation.
Oh good !
However, both domestic and American scientists insist that the scope of a future disaster is still relatively moderate. The extinction of the human species as a whole from one superizverzheniya us exactly safe. As
noted by Jamie Farrell (Jamie Farrell), a renowned expert on the
Yellowstone from the University of Utah: "Almost certainly we will not
die out completely from the [future] Yellowstone eruptions After the
last couple of million years superizverzheniya already happened, but
we're still here.". And indeed, this supervolcano 630,000 years ago did not kill our older relatives - Homo erectus.
At the same time, the resort is still not worth the wait. Superizverzhenie
Toba eruption 70,000 years ago at the time coincides with the sudden
extinction of Homo sapiens, who managed to reach Asia. They survived only in Africa, but the number of them at the same time fell by ten times. 40
thousand years ago superizverzhenie near the Phlegrean Fields (Italy)
are temporarily covered with ashes from the area of modern Naples to
Donbass. For a long time in this part of Europe disappeared all traces of both humans and Neanderthals. And at the same time, the global extinction did not happen - a sharp decline in numbers. When
dressed in the skins of hunter-gatherers managed to survive despite the
sharp climate deterioration, and mass destruction of animals, then some
chance of survival is and we, their descendants.
When the clap of thunder?
Is it possible to know exactly when to dig a cellar in the yard and ready to speculate stew? Unfortunately, the current state of Volcanology does not allow an accurate prediction of this kind. As Viktor Bokov believes popular attempts to identify the frequency super eruptions have little to do with science. "When they say that superizverzheniya happen every 50000-100000 years, we are talking about very rough assumptions," - he said. It is true only that the scientist concludes that the longer one or
the other is not a supervolcano erupted, the more likely it
superizverzheniya in the future.Sometimes American experts allow themselves more confident statements. Peter
Cervelló (Peter Cervelli) Service of Geology, Geodesy and Cartography
of the US Ministry of Internal Affairs said that Yellowstone
superizverzheniya will not be "in the next 10,000 years." True,
he immediately specifies: "We are always ready for surprises [in this
regard] and do not claim to fully understand that everything connected
with it." However,
geologists from the area of future earthquakes often tend to do the
politically conditioned reassuring statements, which then turn out to be
overly optimistic. Similar forecasts of Italian geologists in 2009 led to an increase in the number of victims of the earthquake in L'Aquila. In our country, the majority of experts with dubious about the idea of
a possible pre-accurate predictions of how much we will have to wait
for the next event of this kind.However,
it notes Viktor Bokov Volcanology can point to a situation in which the
probability of superizverzheniya increase substantially. In the case of Yellowstone its trigger may well be a nuclear war. As you know, the US is a priority target for a significant number of nuclear warheads. One of them might explode next to the Yellowstone caldera and accidentally provoke a similar catastrophe. However, as mentioned above, the cooling effect for the global climate Yellowstone itself can not be weaker than a nuclear war. Thus, mankind in this case would be to double the scale of a disaster.At
the same time, he said Viktor Bokov, attempts to intentionally provoke
supervolcanoes nuclear weapons themselves are ineffective. After
all, in order to guarantee to run the eruption, it is necessary to
understand exactly how will spread shock waves from nuclear explosions
in the upper mantle, and where they will come. And
our planet - the non-stationary object, it changes slightly all the
time, its bark is exposed to a constant shifting of the fine, says
geophysicist. Just predict the consequences of provoking a hypothetical nuclear attack is impossible. Therefore, you can not blow up the Yellowstone and planned - only occasionally.To
sum up: although American volcano seems distant from the problems of
our country, in fact, his muzzle charge of the human mind in general. And even if the mortal wound he can not afford to put a threat on the seriousness of this is comparable to a nuclear war. Compounding
the situation is that if a number of countries at least theoretically,
is preparing for the last government, the supervolcano does not affect
the state planning and the accumulation of reserves in case of an
emergency. Without
some serious breakthrough in volcanology all that scientists are not
yet able to say about the timing of this event - is that sooner or later
it is bound to happen. And
taking into account the lack of specific terms, allows us to take
preventive measures, we may be completely exposed in front of him.
The heir to the throne, Alexei Romanov became Commissar Alexei Kosygin
In April this year Rosarchiv, which is administered by the Ministry of Culture, was reassigned directly to the President. Status Updates explained the special state value of the materials stored there. While
experts have wondered what all this would mean in the "President" of
the Presidential Administration registered on the platform of the
newspaper appeared historical investigation. Its essence lies in the fact that the royal family is not one shot. All of them have lived a long life, and Tsarevich Alexei even made a career in the Soviet nomenklatura.
On
the transformation of Tsarevich Alexei Nikolaevich Romanov to the USSR
Council of Ministers Chairman Alexei Kosygin first talked more during
the restructuring. Referred to leak from the party archives. Information accepted as a historical anecdote, although the thought - and suddenly the truth - stirred in many. After all, the remains of the royal family when no one saw, and rumors about their miraculous escape ever there were a lot. And suddenly, on you, - the publication of the royal family life after
the alleged shooting out in the publication, as far away from the
pursuit of sensation.
- Whether it was possible to escape or to be exported from the Ipatiev house? It turns out, yes! - He wrote a newspaper "President" the historian Sergei Zhelenkov. - Nearby stood a factory. In 1905 the owner in case of capture revolutionaries dug her underpass. With the destruction of homes by Boris Yeltsin after the decision of
the Politburo of the bulldozer fell into the tunnel, which no one knew.
What are the grounds were the Bolsheviks to preserve the life of the royal family?
Researchers Tom Mangold and Anthony Summers published a book in 1979, "It's Romanov, or shot, which was not." They
started with the fact that in 1978, expires on 60-year-old signed a
security classification in 1918, the Brest peace treaty, and it would be
interesting to look into the declassified archives. First, they dug - this telegram the British ambassador, reporting on
the evacuation of the royal family by the Bolsheviks in Yekaterinburg to
Perm.
According
to British intelligence agents in the army of Alexander Kolchak,
entered the Yekaterinburg July 25, 1918, Admiral immediately appointed
an investigator on the case of the shooting of the royal family. Three
months later, Captain Sergey Namyotkin put on his desk a report which
said that instead of shooting it was a dramatization. Not believing Kolchak investigator appointed second Sergeev and soon received the same results.
In
parallel, work with them Captain Commission Malinowski, who in June
1919 gave the third investigator Nikolai following instructions Sokolov:
"As a result of my work on the case I had the conviction that the
august family alive ... all the facts that I observed during the
investigation, - a simulation of murder. "
Admiral Kolchak, already proclaimed himself the supreme ruler of
Russia does not need the king was alive, so the Falcons received a very
clear indication - to find evidence of the emperor's death.
Sokolov did not come up with nothing better than to talk: "The corpses thrown into the pit, poured acid."
Tom Mangold and Anthony Summers believed that the answer to be found in the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk. However, its full text is not in the declassified archives of London or Berlin. And they came to the conclusion that there are items relating to the royal family.
Perhaps
the Emperor Wilhelm II, who was a close relative of the Empress
Alexandra Feodorovna, asked Germany to transmit all the august women. Girls do not have rights to the Russian throne, and therefore could not threaten the Bolsheviks. The men were taken hostage - as a guarantee that the German army will not go to St. Petersburg and Moscow.
Such an explanation seems logical. Especially
if we remember that the king was overthrown not red, but its the same
liberal-minded aristocrats, bourgeoisie and the tip of the army. The Bolsheviks did not feed to Nicholas II special hatred. He does not threaten them, but it was a great trump card up his sleeve and a good bargaining chip in negotiations.
Moreover,
Lenin was well aware that Nicholas II is a chicken that could, if
properly shake, carry a lot of much-needed young Soviet state gold
testicles. After all, the king's head kept secrets of the set of family and government deposits in Western banks. Later, these riches of the Russian Empire were used for industrialization.
At
the cemetery in the Italian village of Marcotte was a tombstone on
which reposed Princess Olga, the eldest daughter of Russian Czar
Nicholas II. In 1995, the grave, under the pretext of non-payment of rent, was destroyed, and the remains moved
According to the newspaper "President", the KGB of the USSR on the
basis of 2nd Main Department had a special department, watching all the
movements of the royal family and their descendants in the territory of
the USSR:
"Stalin built a dacha in Sukhumi, near the summer residence of the royal family and went there to meet with the emperor. In the form of Nicholas II, the officer visited the Kremlin, which is
confirmed by General wats, served in Joseph Vissarionovich "protection.
According
to the newspaper, to honor the memory of the last emperor, monarchists
may travel to Nizhny Novgorod in the cemetery, "Krasnaya Etna", where he
was buried 26.12.1958 year. Funeral and buried the famous sovereign nizhegorodskiystarets Gregory.
Much more surprising fate of heir to the throne, Prince Alexei Nikolayevich. Over
time, he, like many, accepted the revolution and came to the conclusion
that it is necessary to serve the homeland, regardless of their
political beliefs. However, the choice had to do.
Historian Sergey Zhelenkov gives many proofs conversion Tsarevich Alexei Kosygin in the Red Army. The roaring years of the Civil War, and even under the guise of the Cheka to make it really was not difficult. Much more interesting to his future career. Stalin considered the young man in a bright future, and moved shrewdly in the economic sphere. Not for the same party.
In
1942, the Commissioner of the State Defense Committee in the besieged
Leningrad, Kosygin led the evacuation of the population and industrial
enterprises and property of Tsarskoye Selo. Alex many times went on Ladoga on the yacht "Standart" and knew the
surroundings of the lake, because organized the "Road of Life" for the
supply of the city.
In 1949, during the promotion of Malenkov "Leningrad Affair" Kosygin "miraculously" survived. Stalin, for all called him a prince, Alexei Nikolaevich sent on a long
trip to Siberia in connection with the need to strengthen co-operation
activities, improve the status of harvesting agricultural products.
Kosygin was so removed from the internal party affairs, which maintained its position after the death of the patron. Khrushchev and Brezhnev were in need of a well-tested business
executives, as a result of Kosygin held the post of head of the
government the longest in the history of the Russian Empire, the Soviet
Union and the Russian Federation - 16 years.
As for Nicholas II, his wife and daughters, then trace them too, is hardly lost.
In
the 90 years in the Italian newspaper "La Repubblica" took note telling
about the death of a nun, Sister Pasqualina Lenart, who from 1939 to
1958 held an important post at the Pope Pius XII. Before
his death, she called and told the notary that Olga Romanova, the
daughter of Nicholas II, the shot was not the Bolsheviks, and lived a
long life under the auspices of the Vatican, and was buried in the
cemetery in the village of Marcotte in northern Italy. The journalists, who left at the address, really found in the
churchyard plate, where German was written: "Olga, the eldest daughter
of Russian Czar Nicholas Romanov, 1895 - 1976".
In this connection the question arises: who is buried in 1998 in the Peter and Paul Cathedral? President Boris Yeltsin assured the public that it is the remains of the royal family. But then the Russian Orthodox Church has refused to recognize this fact.
Recall
that in Sofia, in the building of the Holy Synod in St. Alexander
Nevski Square, resident who escaped from the horrors of revolution
confessor Highest Names Bishop Theophane. He never served a memorial service for august family, and said that the royal family is alive!
